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Table 3 Predictive factors of incidence of CVD in Kharameh population according to multivariable Cox regression with Firth's bias reduction method analysis

From: Incidence and risk factors of cardiovascular disease among population aged 40–70 years: a population-based cohort study in the South of Iran

Variable

Class

Simple Cox regression

Multiple Cox regression

HR (95%CI)

p value*

HRadj (95%CI)

p value*

Age

40–50

1

1

50–60

3.2 (2.4,4.2)

 < 0.01

2.4 (1.8,3.3)

 < 0.01

60–70

5.7 (4.3,7.6)

3.7 (2.7,5.2)

Sex

Female

1

1

Male

2.02 (1.6,2.4)

 < 0.01

2.3 (1.7,3.2)

 < 0.01

Having Job

No

1

 

1

 
 

Yes

1.2 (1.05,1.5)

0.013

1.1 (0.9,1.5)

0.2

Married status

Single

1

0.001

1

0.32

 

Married

4.4 (0.8,22.3)

1.6 (0.3,8.4)

 

Divorced

6.5 (0.28,33.4)

2.3 (0.4,12)

Socioeconomic status

Low

1

0.55

 
 

Moderate

1.1 (0.84,1.44)

 
 

High

0.93 (0.69,1.25)

 
 

Very high

0.93 (0.69,1.24)

 

Education

Illiterate

1

 < 0.01

1

0.39

 

Primary school

0.5 (0.4,0.7)

0.7 (0.5,1.02)

 

Secondary school

0.6 (0.4,0.9)

0.8 (0.58,1.2)

 

Diploma and University

0.5 (0.3,0.7)

0.6 (0.45,1.01)

BMI

Under weight

1

0.6

 
 

Normal

1.36 (0.78,2.37)

 
 

Over weight

1.07 (0.61,1.88)

 
 

Obese

0.93 (0.51,1.7)

 

Location

Urban

1

 

1

 
 

Rural

0.8 (0.6,1.07)

0.19

0.8 (0.6,1.5)

0.1

Chronic kidney disease

No

1

1

Yes

3.7 (1.4,9.4)

 < 0.01

3.4 (1.3,8.7)

0.02

Hypertension

No

1

1

Yes

2.1 (1.7,2.6)

 < 0.01

1.6 (1.3–2.1)

 < 0.01

Diabetes mellitus

No

1

1

Yes

2.8 (2.3,3.5)

 < 0.01

2.3 (1.8,2.9)

 < 0.01

Fatty liver

No

1

 

 
 

Yes

0.82 (0.58,1.16)

0.27

 

Alcohol consumption

No

1

1

Yes

1.8 (1.2,2.5)

0.001

1.5 (1.09,2.2)

 < 0.01

Cigarette smoking

No

1

 

1

 
 

Yes

1.7 (1.3,2.1)

 < 0.01

1.2 (0.9,1.6)

0.05

LDL

 

1.003 (1.002,1.004)

 < 0.01

1.003 (1.002,1.003)

 < 0.01

TG

 

1.001 (1.0003,1.002

 < 0.01

1.006 (0.99,1.001)

0.4

FBS

 

1.005 (1.003–1.007)

 < 0.01

1.002 (0.99,1.004)

0.08

Hip circumference

 

0.9 (0.9,0.9)

 < 0.01

0.9 (0.9,1.01)

0.1

Waist circumference

 

1.005 (0.99,1.01)

0.17

 
  1. *P.v for LRT test
  2. All the variables with p value less than 0.2 were entered into the multiple Firth Cox regression. Three variables of BMI, socioeconomic status and fatty liver disease were not entered into the multiple model due to having a p value higher than 0.2. In addition, waist circumference variable was not included in the multiple model due to its high correlation with hip circumference (ρ = 0.8. p < 0.0001)