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Table 2 Comparison of Akaike information criteria (AIC) value of SARIMA models to find the best fit model

From: Geospatial clustering, seasonal trend and forecasting of Kyasanur Forest Disease in the state of Goa, India, 2015–2018

SARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)12 model

AIC value

BIC value

(2,0,2) (0,0,0)

390.7

410.97

(2,1,2) (0,0,0)12

391.6

402.69

(2,1,2) (1,0,1)12

392.36

407.16

(2,1,2) (1,1,1)12

301.9

314.34

(1,1,2) (1,1,1)12

300.4

311.28

(2,1,1) (1,1,1)12

300.38

311.27

(1,1,1) (1,1,2)12

300.09

310.99

  1. SARIMA Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model
  2. (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)12; p auto-regression function, d difference, q moving average, P seasonal auto-regression function, D seasonal difference, Q seasonal moving average